international

Paddy vs Ming?

Paddy Ashdown's Independent article seems to fly in the face of Ming's call to leave Iraq. But closer examination indicates a degree of agreement.
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Most people seem to agree, including my colleague Peter, that yesterday was a good day for Ming. I was, therefore, rather surprised to see a piece by Paddy in today's Independent that appeared to contradict Ming's position. I'm not sure whether the Independent has been holding this article back, but publishing it under the title Paddy Ashdown: "Troops home by Christmas" is not an option was certainly mischevious and probably designed to play against the prevailing Ming headlines.

Yet, this article repays careful reading for it is a typically thoughtful and knowledgeable piece by Paddy that reflects both a sound understanding of Twentieth Century history, and also his own experiences as Royal Marine in some of Britain's military actions in Malaysia and the Gulf.

What it isn't, is a comment specifically about Iraq. It is Paddy's view of how one ought to go about state-building if one has committed to it. Paddy's four steps can be summarised as follows:

1) State-building, unlike military campaigns, takes a Long time. Decades. If you commit, you commit for the long hall (which is where the title of the article comes from).

2) Establishing the rule of law quickly is paramount. Before elections. You can't do anything in a lawless vacuum.

3) Economic reform also needs to happen quickly.

4) You need the acquiescense, at the very least, of neighbouring states.

So how does this relate to Iraq? A cursory glance at the above list shows that the US contrived to ignore every point. Unfortunately, we have to start from where we are in applying Paddy's maxims - but whether British troops should be part of implementing the solution is a moot point. Establishment of the rule of law is arguably harder given the British and US presence and the lack of neigbouring countries' involvement.

Better, perhaps, to commit fully to Afghanistan than partially to both there and Iraq - as Ming called for.


Liberal Imperialism - contradiction in terms?

Niall Ferguson's critique of the British Empire's role in shaping the modern world asks tough questions of Liberals.
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As a child, having a December birthday was a bugbear as the temptation to amalagamate my birthday with Christmas was usually too great. This year, I had cause to be thankful, as I was given Niall Ferguson's Empire for my birthday and had the chance to read it up to and over Christmas.

The subtitle (and subtext) of the book is "How Britain made the Modern World". For, whilst Ferguson's engaging (if sketchy) narrative takes the reader on a whistlestop tour of British expansion and contraction, it is the questions that this hypothesis raises that are perhaps the lasting impression of the book for me.

Ferguson puts forward a variation on the "seeds of its own destruction" argument for the end of Empire, in that ultimately it was in standing up to the far more brutal nascent German and Japanese Empires that the British Empire bankrupted itself beyond repair.

Yet the real premise of the book is that it is the export of British ideas of governance that sets the British Empire apart, and allowed the development of a liberal/Liberal world. Perhaps the key quote for me in this respect is the following:

The economic historian David Landes recently drew up a list of measures which the 'ideal growth-and-development' government would adopt. Such a government, he suggests, would

1 secure rights of private property, the better to encourage saving and investment;
2 secure rights of personal liberty ... against both the abuses of tyranny and ... crime and corruption;
3 enforce rights of contract;
4 provide stable government ... governed by pucblicly known rules;
5 provide responsive government;
6 provide honest government ... [with] no rente to favour and position;
7 provide moderate, efficient, ungreedy government ... to hold taxes down [and] reduce the government's claim on the social surplus.

The striking thing about this list is how many of its points correspond to what British Indian and Colonial officials in the nineteenth and twentieth century believed they were doing. The sole, obvious exceptions are pointe 2 and 5. Yet the British argument for postponing (sometimes indefinitely) the transfer to democrac was that many of their colonies were not yet ready for it; indeed the classic and not wholly disingenuous twentieth-century line from the Colonial Office was that Britain's role was precisely to get them ready.

Reading the above list, it strike me that (i) I would agree that it constitutes a blue-print for the sort of liberal society and governement I would like to see and (ii) how few places in the world there are where these conditions pertain. Much like the conditions for human betterment, which require basic physical needs to be satisfied before more esoteric concerns can be addressed, a liberal world requires a certain order.

Ferguson argues that it took the British to impose, and maintain, those conditions, in order for the world to become safe for Liberal Democracy. He uses this case to argue for a Pax Americana, indeed argues that de facto, if not de jure, an American Empire exists already (a theme he has developed in a later book).

Instinctively, as a Liberal I recoil from the imposition of anything; but at the same time, as I value Liberal Democracy should I not fight for, or authorise the fight for, those values to be allowed to others? This conundrum is encapsulated in another quote from Ferguson's book:

[The Americans have always had] a very different conception of Empire. To the Americans, reared on the myth of their own fight for freedom from British opression, formal rule over subject peoples was unpalatable. It also implied those foreign entanglements the Founding Fathers had warned against. Sooner or later, everyone must learn to be, like the Americans, self-governing and democratic - at gunpoint if necessary. In 1913 there had been a military coup in Mexico, to the grave displeasure of Woodrow Wilson, who resolved 'to teach the South American Republics to elect good men'. Walter Page, then Washington's man in London, reported a conversation with the British Foreign Secretary Sir Edwar Grey, who asked:

'Suppose you have to intervene, what then?'
'Make 'em vote and live by their decisions.'
'But suppose they will not so live?'
'We'll go in and make 'em vote again.'
'And keep this up 200 years?' asked he.
'Yes', said I. 'The United States will be here for two hundred years and it can continue to shoot men for that little space till they learn to vote and to rule themselves.'

Anything, in other words, but take over[my emphasis] Mexico - which would have been the British solution.

The US has tried the "British Solution" in Iraq - and Ferguson's argument is that it will not stay for the long term, so it tends more towards the Mexican situation. But it does raise this question.

Can it ever be possible to bring about a world system of Liberal Democracy without imposition? And if it can't be guaranteed without the willingness to impose it, should it be pursued in those terms?


Three thoughts on Dave

Excerpt: 1 Guido: Guido reveals that Cameron has stolen his analysis from Francis Fukuyama's After the Neo-Cons but concludes
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1 Guido:

Guido reveals that Cameron has stolen his analysis from Francis Fukuyama's After the Neo-Cons but concludes

Interestingly although the arguments, phrasing and structure are the same, the conclusion is different. Fukuyama concluded the occupation of Iraq to be a mistake, Cameron has not followed the logic of the argument to that end. Not so much a dodgy dossier, more a dodgy conclusion...

2 Sky:

Well I didn't actually hear this but I was in a bar and saw a television with subtitles for the hard of hearing: "a speech his opponents will attack as another flipflop," it said. (They got that right).

3. Ming (in the Sun)

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell believes these words echo his own parties ideas, and have come a little late.

He commented: "It is a great pity that Mr Cameron and his party were not prepared to join the Liberal Democrats in making similar comments during the invasion of Iraq or the crisis in Lebanon.

"Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

"It is only the Liberal Democrats who have had the courage to take a consistent and principled approach to foreign policy."

4. One final thought

It is probably significant that newspapers are running the story under headings on the lines of "I'm not really a neo-con".


Are your local Conservatives thinking what Simon Heffer is thinking?

Excerpt: Tabman talked of the Heffer response the other day - here is the latest installment Dodgy Dave simply can't be trusted
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Tabman talked of the Heffer response the other day - here is the latest installment

Dodgy Dave simply can't be trusted

The only thing that surprises me about Dave's failure to honour his promise to take his MEPs out of the European People's Party is that so many of my friends in his party were taken in by it. The idea of a naked careerist such as Dave, with his long and distinguished record as a PR spiv behind him, doing anything that might upset the progressives in his party was simply preposterous from the start. I am grateful to several of my readers for sending me copies of their e-mails and letters resigning from the party because of this. They know they have been conned, having heard Dave promise at regional hustings that he would do this: and they wonder, now, what else he has lied to them about. In our sleaze poll today, 51 per cent of the public say they find the Conservative Party untrustworthy. When its leader cynically manipulates opinion in his party like this, is it any wonder? I hope those MPs who were duped will now start to voice the public's concern at his utter and self-serving lack of principle, and give him hell.


Ming Campbell: A Liberal Britain in a Liberal World

Body: 

The issue I wish to address today is how Britain's place in the world, is intimately linked, with how we uphold our democratic values here at home.

Foreign policy should not be about either permanent friends or permanent interests. Instead it should be based on and conducted against the backdrop of permanent values.

How we act as a nation domestically to tackle threats that have international reach, such as terrorism, has a decisive impact on how we are perceived abroad. This can support or undermine our attempts to influence others.

By example, consider how Guantanamo Bay and Abu Graib have undermined US foreign policy goals.

Consider also the way in which the British Government’s unilateral ratification of the 2003 Extradition Treaty has damaged Britain's reputation for defending its national interests. When the British and American governments negotiated this Treaty it was intended as an agreement aimed primarily at making the extradition of terrorist suspects between our two countries a simpler and speedier process.

Instead we find ourselves in a position whereby the Extradition Treaty has been ratified by the UK, but not by the US.

Even if it were ratified that Treaty would still place a higher threshold of evidence on the UK to request an extradition than it would on the United States.

This is a double embarrassment for our country, and it works against our national interest. My argument is not with the United States. Its government is looking after the interests of our citizens. I only wish that the UK government would do the same for us.

Today, the Nat West Three are leaving the country to face charges in the United States over their alleged involvement in the Enron scandal. These are charges for alleged crimes committed in the UK, and which British authorities are not prosecuting.

Had the UK sought such an extradition from the UK, it would have had to provide a far more complete case against those it sought to extradite - whether or not the US had ratified in the Treaty.

Reciprocity is a rule that should guide our foreign policy. In this case it has not. Three British citizens are now being forced to pay the price for that.

I contend that our foreign policy must be outward looking. It should promote security, human rights, and democracy.

But our foreign policy must be pursued in the context of setting an example here at home.

We insist that humans are born with a set of inalienable human rights.

The freedoms we enjoy here in Britain, and that require constant vigilance to protect, are freedoms that billions around the world yearn for.

As Voltaire wrote of our people:

“They are not only jealous of their own liberty, but even of that of other nations.�

The necessity and the moral imperative for taking forward a principled foreign policy must be supported at home with a distinctive and supportive approach to civil liberty and human rights.

And here, the British Government is undermining at home, that which we seek to achieve abroad.

LIBERTY

In The Rights of Man, Tom Paine did what elected politicians rarely do.

He set out a standard by which to measure others' actions.

He recognised the existence of basic rights and, in doing so, challenged others to say why they should not be upheld.

He sought a better world, with a better way of life for its citizens.
He strove for liberty.

Since Tom Paine's time, this struggle, for human rights, for freedom and liberty, has been pursued in enlightened countries through their constitutions and law-making.

In the 20th Century, in the aftermath of the World War Two, the formation of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights took that struggle to another level.

The Universal Declaration held that there are basic guarantees that all people should be entitled to independently of whether or not they are recognised and implemented by the legal or political system of a country in which they live.

Today in many countries, these fundamental rights are most often codified in law as essential standards that should be maintained. They can be positive rights that ask for the state to provide for its citizens, or they can be negative rights which entitle individuals to protection from coercive government, and therefore benefit society as a whole. Tom Paine was a pioneer in the latter of these two, but today we see them both as essential and interlinked.

Civil liberties often overlap with rights. They also provide citizens with freedoms that have emerged from a combination of law and convention. They are often taken for granted, especially in this country where they are not codified in a written constitution.

And so we turn to Blair's Britain. What kind of country is this? What kind of country should it be?

My view of this country is, as you might guess, a liberal one.
I see a country with a strong and proud tradition of liberty.
From Magna Carta through to the Human Rights Act, Britain has an historic attachment to freedom, to the right of the individual to live his or her life without undue interference from the state.

I have never felt the need to wrap myself in the Union Jack.
The reason I choose not to do so is because I understand this country.
We are a proud nation, but an independent one.
We ally ourselves to reason and to tolerance, not to symbols or to gestures. That is true British patriotism.

Yet there can be little doubt that this way of life is under threat. I would like to share with you a number of ideas aimed at creating a more liberal and secure United Kingdom. But first I would like to explore the ways in which this government has undermined our rights and liberties .

DEPLETION OF CIVIL LIBERTIES

When Labour was elected in 1997 it moved quickly to enshrine the European Convention on Human Rights in UK domestic law through the Human Rights Act 1998. This was to bring the UK into line with other member states of the EU who had long since brought the Convention into their own legal systems. It was hailed by the then Home Secretary, Jack Straw, who said:

"I believe that in time, the Human Rights Act will help bring about a culture of rights and responsibilities across the UK...the Convention rights... are going to become an anchor for our laws and policies and a sail for service delivery."

The Liberal Democrats supported this initiative.

Last month Mr Blair wrote to the Home Secretary suggesting that there should be new laws which would allow the government to veto court rulings with which it disagreed.

The Lord Chancellor suggested that the Human Rights Act could be amended to make sure that it is not 'distracting officials'.

But the whole point of civil and human rights is that they force governments and others to maintain standards and not simply over-ride what they do not like.

Extraordinary threats, like those posed by international terrorism, may require us, in times of emergency and for limited periods, to find a different balance between our hard won liberties and our security.

But the correct response to such threats should not be the abandonment of the hard won liberties that generations of Britons have relied upon.

Nor is the correct response, when faced, for example - with problems arising from the implementation of human rights legislation, to use that to call into question the consensus which has developed as part of the struggle for equality in the last two centuries.

Our response should be to remind the Conservatives that this country is alone in Europe and almost alone in the common law world in lacking a written constitution.

The Human Rights Act is a shield against the tyranny of majorities and the abuse of public powers. It enables British courts to provide effective remedies for the abuse of power by public authorites.

In framing our response to new threats, such decisions should be carefully argued and pursued with widespread support; they should not be implemented in a rush. For hard won rights once lost, may never be regained.

We should always be vigilant that powers granted to government and its agencies are limited to the mischief that they are designed to address.

Civil liberties are being trampled underfoot by legislation and policy. The examples are numerous.

The Terrorism Act allows the police to stop and search people in a designated area and that designated area can be anywhere as defined by the police.

The Serious Crime and Police Act requires protesters to obtain police permission before demonstrating within a kilometre of Parliament. This covers key areas around Westminster and Whitehall where a protest is likely to have most impact. It was under section 132 of this Act, that the shameful arrest of Maya Evans took place. She read aloud the names of 97 British soldiers who have been killed in Iraq since the beginning of the Second Gulf War. Her great crime was to do this at the Cenotaph in Whitehall, without police permission.

Added to this is the national DNA database on which our details are stored once we hand over a sample of our DNA. Whether or not you are convicted of a crime, whether or not you are even charged, the data is stored. The state literally owns part of your identity, especially if you are from an ethnic minority. If you are black, your details are currently three times more likely to be stored on record than if you are white.

The right to trial by jury and the double jeopardy principle have both been eroded by an executive that seeks targets and conviction rates.

Fundamental and historic liberties are under threat as state control increases. How secure can the individual feel then from state control in this environment?

If the Government does not trust the people, it does not trust Parliament either.

Legislation is centralising the decision-making process ever more narrowly, giving more power to ministers at the expense of the House of Commons. The Civil Contingencies Act is a case in point. It allows a minister to declare a state of emergency, seize assets, set up courts and limit citizens' right to assembly. Parliament can only intervene after seven days.

Similarly under the terms of the Inquiries Act a minister sets the terms of reference for an inquiry and has sway over what evidence is admitted. He can also exclude the public by making the hearing a private one, and can bring it to a close without explanation.

It is almost a cliché to claim that the Government of the day is undermining parliamentary democracy. In this case however, it is difficult to deny. The accountability of our elected representatives is in decline.

OUR CHANGING RELATIONSHIP WITH THE STATE

The intention of these legislative efforts has been to combat the threat of terrorism. This has backfired spectacularly.

The majority of this legislation was passed, or in the process of being passed, on that terrible day in July last year when Britain witnessed its first suicide bombings on the public transport network in London.

The rise of the threat to our citizens is much to do with Britain's role in Iraq, as foreshadowed by the intelligence services. But it is clear that the raft of authoritarian legislation that has been passed in the name of security has done nothing to enhance security

In the meantime, our own personal liberties, our personal security from the over-weaning state, have been completely undermined. state control over freedom of speech, over freedom of assembly and movement and over personal information, has been coupled with increased powers for the executive over the legislature. The sum total is a vast reduction in personal autonomy.

This marks a real shift in the relationship between government and citizen. No doubt this is what the Prime Minister intends. Last May he said in a speech that, "I believe we require a profound rebalancing of the civil liberties debate".

Simon Davies, a fellow of the London School of Economics, who undertook research into the ID card scheme, sums up my view perfectly when he says "we have gone almost as far as it is possible to go in establishing the infrastructures of control and surveillance within an open and free environment...that architecture only has to work and the citizens only have to become compliant for the Government to have control."

What we are witnessing is the rewriting of our relationship with the state by stealth. Tightening control over our movements, making demands over our identity – these are the basis of state control over the individual. They undermine our personal liberty and they undermine our personal security. The state is here to serve the people; the people are not here to serve the state.

THE LIBERAL DEMOCRAT ALTERNATIVE

Independence and liberty are the hallmarks of a secure society. Where we find liberty, we find confidence in ourselves. A country which promotes liberty at home is a country that can have confidence in itself and security within its borders.

The raft of authoritarian pledges from this Government has been unnecessary and wholly unhelpful.

How then would the Liberal Democrats rebalance the relationship between the individual and the state?

Firstly, we would place rights at the heart of our legal system and civil rights agenda. The European Convention on Human Rights was drawn up by a British lawyer and has been used to great effect across the member countries of the Council of Europe. It is a guarantee of freedom and justice that Labour was right to enshrine in domestic law in 1998.

Labour hints at tampering with it. The Tories want it scrapped. Neither should be allowed.

It is precisely because governments may find these laws inconvenient that we identify them as rights under which the government of the day must work. To change the laws would undermine their very purpose.

To scrap them from British law, as David Cameron recommends, is an outlandish suggestion. He says that they would still apply but that British citizens would have to go to Strasbourg to have the European Court of Human Rights enforce them. Curious how the Tories have changed... apparently they now trust a European Court more than the British legal system. Justice should be accessible to all at home, rather than the wealthy who can afford to pursue it abroad.

I rather agree with Ken Clarke, head of the Tories' task force on constitutional issues, and a former home secretary, who has described his leader's views as "xenophobic and legal nonsense".

By defending, enhancing and codifying rights in this country we can reverse the insidious slide towards authoritarian state control. We must give liberty to the people and trust them to use it.

Second, plans for a national identity card scheme should be scrapped. This policy has become a totem for the Prime Minister and his home secretaries. They assert that ID cards will be a tool to be used against terrorism. There is no evidence to suggest that this will be the case.

Identity cards pose a real threat to liberty. They will store personal data without our consent, pave the way to an ever-larger number of uses for the card, and create a situation in which one card serves as a key to accessing public services. This will surely become the target of fraud.

Third, the money saved from scrapping ID cards could be spent on truly effective measures to cut crime.

Liberal Democrats have other plans for the money earmarked for this project: more police on our streets; more community support officers; time-saving technology for our policemen and women; a National Border Agency to bring together the officers from immigration, police and customs whose responsibilities overlap.

The ID card scheme itself is both expensive and impractical. The government tells us that it would cost around £6 billion. The LSE's study says it could be up to £19 billion. This weekend an e-mail exchange between senior civil servants involved in the ID card project was leaked to the press. These individuals pour scorn on the idea that the Government can meet its timetable for rolling out the project in 2008. They note that the plan is confused and complex and could be "canned completely". A scaled-down "face saving version" is now a possibility. Not because it is sensible but because, as one of the e-mails puts it, "It was a Mr Blair apparently who wanted the 'early variant' card".

This is an unjustifiable, expensive, ill-conceived threat to our liberties. There is not justification for it, other than the Prime Minister's stubborn insistence. It should be dropped at once.

Labour's plans will undermine trust and the security of our people. Our plans will make a real difference; our party is about substance, not symbolism.

Fourthly, it is time to reinvigorate the role of Parliament in our democracy. This is as much about political culture as it is about party policy.

Liberals believe in openness. We believe that people can be trusted to know the truth and to handle it responsibly. We also believe that for the people to trust their government, their government must trust them.

I have called for a public inquiry into the events of 7/7. This is not a party political point. Rather it is about saying that we have witnessed the first suicide bombings in this country and that the truth behind how this came about is a matter for the public record.

There is a strong belief that the Government's foreign policy in Iraq and its domestic policies at home have contributed to the motives that lay behind the bombings. These events must be properly investigated. If it looks like you have something to hide, people will only assume that you do.

CONCLUSION

My vision is of a liberal future for Britain. Our place in the world is one in which we seek openness and freedom for our citizens. That is how we will build trust in society. From trust, we can derive security.

We need to create a society in which we respect one another not by virtue of authoritarian legislation but by mutual understanding.

There is no security when our rights are treated with contempt.

There is no security when our civil liberties are removed at the whim of authoritarian government.

There is no security when our Government removes accountability from government process.

Security and liberty are not mutually exclusive; they are mutually reinforcing.

A liberal Britain at home will be a happier, more secure Britain. It will also be a Britain better placed to talk of the value that rights and liberty can bring to others.

We should strive to provide liberty where it is needed, at home and abroad.

Internationally, only active co-operation between states through international institutions can address the threats posed by terrorism, and tackle the underlying causes of conflict, including poverty, the abuse of human rights, repression, and competition for resources.
We favour a muscular multilateralism that empowers international institutions to be able to act.

We must recognise that organisations such as the United Nations are dependent on the political will of their constituent member countries to act and the will of those countries to reform the institutions so that action can be swift and effective.
We must also recognise that a system of enforceable international law not only protects, but it restrains too.

We need to strengthen the ability of the United Nations to hold member states to account for gross and persistent breaches of human rights.

It may be that the United States sometimes chafes under the obligations that international law imposes. But we must also remember that this same international law can be used to restrain those whose motives we may not hold in such high regard.

If international law is undermined by one, it is undermined for all.

(Speech at the Tom Paine Festival in Lewes, July 13, 2006)



Cameron´s commitment to leaving the EPP

Excerpt: We have looked at this issue before, but today is rumoured to be the day that Cameron breaks his word.
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We have looked at this issue before, but today is rumoured to be the day that Cameron breaks his word.

So let's just remember how firm a pledge it was. Here's what his office told a eurosceptic councillor in December

David Cameron’s office replied already:

Thank you so much for copying your email to William Hague to David Cameron - he’s asked me to thank you and to say that he appreciated what you had to say enormously.

David Cameron has made clear that it is his firm policy that the Conservative Party under his leadership will not remain a member of the European Peoples Party-European Democrats Group (EPP-ED) in the European Parliament, and will aim to form a new grouping which reflects more closely our views on the way forward for Europe.

The Conservative Party has a fundamentally different approach on the key institutional and constitutional questions relating to the future direction of the European Union, and it is natural that we should wish to ally ourselves with parties which share that view. But we intend to maintain close relations with other centre-right parties with which we agree on much, but not on these issues.

David Cameron has asked the new Shadow Foreign Secretary to take forward this process, with appropriate consultation of all involved. In seeking a new alignment within the European Parliament, the Conservative Party will aim to continue to work closely with fellow centre-right parties in the European Parliament on the many issues on which we agree.

Many thanks again for writing.

Here is a quote from the Daily Telegraph during the leadership election campaign. It shows just how key the issue was, how clear Cameron´s commitment was, and how the first people to talk about Cameron flip-flops were...Tories:

His aides immediately insisted that their candidate was using the same form of words he had always used on the issue. "There is no backtracking," said a spokesman.

The spokesman insisted that "if David Cameron becomes leader, we will leave the EPP" but in a dig at Mr Davis for over-detailed policy pledges, he said it would be "a mistake to set out a precise timetable".

The Davis campaign seized on the answer to release a list of seven other alleged "Cameron flip-flops" over policy such as tuition fees and NHS patient passports. "Mr Cameron won the support of the Bill Cashes on the Eurosceptic hard-Right with this extravagant pledge, and now he's wobbling," said a Davis aide.

And here is the Daily Telegraph's view of Cameron´s integrity if he does break his word on this:

If he fails to fulfil it, he will confirm Labour's smear - that he is a flip-flopping lightweight without firm principles - and irreparably damage the electorate's growing sense that here, at last, is a different sort of politician.

For cameron this is partly a problem of inexperience: he made a promise that hurts him whether he keeps it or breaks it. It is partly a matter of character. And it is partly the tragedy of the Conservative Party - the party which took, Britian into Europe, which contains the most euro-enthusaistic politicians and also contains the most europhobe.

Cameron´s whole strategy has been to say to voters "back me, ignore my party". Yet today he may destroy his own reputation.


In praise of Zinedine Zidane

Excerpt: Beyond the skills and the tension of the game is the dramatic narrative of sport; the veiled reflection of real human struggles. Sport is not just compelling because of the flick passes, the sidesteps, the soft-shoe shuffles, an elegant cover-drive, or a deceptive Portuguese dive; it compels because of the context. Muhammad Ali’s comeback victories in the 1970s are significant not just because they assured Ali’s claim to greatness, but because he was no longer Cassius, and his history was more than just that of a boxer. Lance Armstong’s Tour victories are made all the more impressive – unbelievable – because they came after cancer, not just because he won more Tours than Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault and Indurain before him.
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Beyond the skills and the tension of the game is the dramatic narrative of sport; the veiled reflection of real human struggles. Sport is not just compelling because of the flick passes, the sidesteps, the soft-shoe shuffles, an elegant cover-drive, or a deceptive Portuguese dive; it compels because of the context. Muhammad Ali’s comeback victories in the 1970s are significant not just because they assured Ali’s claim to greatness, but because he was no longer Cassius, and his history was more than just that of a boxer. Lance Armstong’s Tour victories are made all the more impressive – unbelievable – because they came after cancer, not just because he won more Tours than Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault and Indurain before him.

Sometimes the greatness is seen in juxtaposition to a fall from grace that accompanied declining talents and fading years. Best, Gascoigne, Maradonna – anger at the boredom that came between matches, fury at the emasculation of being unable to play – and when, once robbed of that thing that defined them as men, the beginning of a tragic slide.

The raging against the dying of the light is a compelling context for sporting drama. Zidane, once retired from international football, rescinded to drag France to the World Cup Finals. He is thirty-four and retired from club football. In 1998 he scored two goals as France beat Brazil in the final. In 2000 he had shown total mastery as France cruised to the European Championship. Injury had ravaged his form in the 2002 World Cup, and in recent years among the galacticos of Real Madrid, his star had waned in good company. But against Brazil in the quarter finals, Zidane of old returned. Each game was literally his last. He played ever game with a strapped leg. But the turns, feints, passes, step-overs; the controlling influence - was all there. From wherever he found it, he rediscovered his talent (had ever it gone away) and dominated again. More than Ronaldinho, the two Ronaldos, David Beckham or Wayne Rooney, this World Cup, the latter stages especially, were about Zinedine Zidane and his personal struggle to overcome declining form, an ageing team, and an inexperienced coach, to win again.

Not all fairytales end happily, however, and not every triumphant return is for good. In the end France lost on penalties; by that time Zidane had already departed, sent off for butting Marco Materazzi – a man who will forever be associated for provoking Zizou to violence (but for what, we will ask). Was this a sad end to Zidane’s career? Or a fall from grace? Not at all. Winning is not everything. Who wants perfection? Sportsmen and women at the highest level transcend the game, they relate us – and the game itself - directly to broader dramatic narrative of sport and life, and if they didn’t sometimes lose, then we’d cease interest in the idea that sometimes against all the odds there can be victory. Perhaps also, we should simply reflect that last night, for Zinedine Zidane, there was something more important than playing the last ten minutes of a game fated to be decided by chance. And leave it at that.


Flash Gordon and the UK rebate

Excerpt: There is a heavily spun report on EU finances in the FT in which Flash Gordon appears to be fighting a one-man battle to save the UK rebate.
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There is a heavily spun report on EU finances in the FT in which Flash Gordon appears to be fighting a one-man battle to save the UK rebate.

Gordon Brown, UK chancellor of the exchequer, is fighting with Britain’s 24 European partners over the implementation of a deal on the EU’s €862bn seven-year budget brokered by the the prime minister Tony Blair in December.

Although Mr Brown was consulted throughout the bruising negotiations in Brussels at the end of the British EU presidency, his officials claimed he was dismayed by the outcome. Now he is fighting a rearguard action to save money.

The details are fairly technical, but boil down to this: the UK rebate is paid on the net imbalance in certain types of expenditure. The deal reached last year did not include a redefintion of that expenditure.

Some other Member States are apparently arguing therefore that refund should not be paid on the sums used for compensatory payments to Austria, Sweden, the Netherlands and Germany (there are more rebates than you might think) which will now form a part of EU expenditure.

The Treasury is right on this: compensatory payments from the expenditure side of the budget (the UK rebate comes from the revenue side) have always counted to the definition of expenditure on which rebate is paid. As the deal is silent on definition, it should be assumed that this definition has not changed.

Whether this needed to be set up as a staged fight between Blair and himself is a question only he can answer.

There ought not to be any risk of the UK losing this fight. All the UK needs to do is sit tight. But if No 10 and No 11 Downing Street had communicated during the negotiations, we might have avoided this unnecessary row.


Cameron flip-flops on Iraq

Excerpt: Who could forget the groundbreaking move made by David Cameron, during the Dunfermline by-election, when he dramatically repositioned the 'liberal' Conservative party against the war in Iraq? He said, in a letter to constituents:
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David Cameron
Who could forget the groundbreaking move made by David Cameron, during the Dunfermline by-election, when he dramatically repositioned the 'liberal' Conservative party against the war in Iraq? He said, in a letter to constituents:

‘Issues that once divided Conservatives from Liberal Democrats are now issues where we both agree. Our attitude to devolution and localisation of power. Iraq. The environment. I'm a liberal Conservative.’

At the time, the Lib Dems were leaderless and Cameron was fishing for defectors. The Lib Dem poll ratings were plummeting and Cameron sensed an opportunity. Then the Dunfermline result was announced, a new leader was elected and now a new policy programme is taking shape. The Lib Dems are polling over 20% again, and suddenly the idea of attracting Lib Dem votes looks less attractive to Cameron. So he decides that he does disagree with the Lib Dems over the war in Iraq after all, and supports Tony Blair's decision to go to war. The BBC reports:

Conservative leader David Cameron has said he still believes going to war with Iraq was the right thing to do.

In an interview for BBC's Friday Night with Jonathan Ross, he said the war had been "very unpopular" and some bad decisions had been made since it began.

But Mr Cameron said "those of us who supported" the military action should "see it through".

He praised Tony Blair's reform of the Labour party but said he wanted the Tories to be "the party of the future".

On the issue of Iraq, he told Ross he supported Mr Blair's decision to go to war.

Just what does Cameron really think? It seems to me that, whatever his true opinion, he is working hard to conceal it. First he was for the Iraq war, then he was against it, now he's for it again. Will he oppose it the next time a major bomb goes off, rediscover his support for it when things start to improve, then, when the troops eventually do come home, pretend he was in favour of the whole thing all along? It would certainly fit the pattern.

Personally, I'm glad to see that he's dropping the 'liberal Conservative' line. It leaves the real liberals to get on with the job, without his posing getting in the way.


What was Bush thinking?

Excerpt: In Britain, there are few people who think particularly highly of George W. Bush. Of those who do, many of those are people who supported the war in Iraq and the broader 'War on Terror' and are convinced that, whatever his failings, Bush is the best man to see that task through. I'd be surprised, however, if there are many of them left.
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George W. Bush looking thoughtful

In Britain, there are few people who think particularly highly of George W. Bush. Of those who do, many of those are people who supported the war in Iraq and the broader 'War on Terror' and are convinced that, whatever his failings, Bush is the best man to see that task through. I'd be surprised, however, if there are many of them left.

There has been much written on the subject of Iraq, which I will not repeat here (though I will recommend a recent guest blog piece on the subject). What worries me most now is the larger geopolitical situation; that, far from making us all safer, the Iraq war and the mishandling of its aftermath has left us all in greater danger, facing larger problems on the international stage.

Yesterday's piece in the Washington Post (found via QandO - their take is well worth reading) reported on a document which reveals the scale of strategic blundering in the US global strategy. It begins:

Just after the lightning takeover of Baghdad by U.S. forces three years ago, an unusual two-page document spewed out of a fax machine at the Near East bureau of the State Department. It was a proposal from Iran for a broad dialogue with the United States, and the fax suggested everything was on the table -- including full cooperation on nuclear programs, acceptance of Israel and the termination of Iranian support for Palestinian militant groups.

But top Bush administration officials, convinced the Iranian government was on the verge of collapse, belittled the initiative. Instead, they formally complained to the Swiss ambassador who had sent the fax with a cover letter certifying it as a genuine proposal supported by key power centers in Iran, former administration officials said.

Read that again: 'full cooperation on nuclear programs, acceptance of Israel and the termination of Iranian support for Palestinian militant groups'. And, in their infinite overconfidence, the Bush administration turned that deal down. I am genuinely unable to understand why; those terms are better than the ones being sought, with great difficult, by the current US negotiating team. This is what puzzles me: did Bush expect to get a better deal? We all know that Middle East intelligence has been flawed, but were the US administration so deluded as to believe that the Iranian government was on the verge of collapse?

In refusing the offer, they broke a cardinal rule of negotiation: always bargain from a position of strength. At their strongest point, having toppled Saddam in a matter of days, the US should have been able to agree a very favourable settlment with Iran. Instead, they rejected the Iranian offer and thus gave the Iranians time to regroup and plan. In that meantime, Iran elected Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a man whose political career largely depends on his defiance of the US. A deal would have strengthened the moderate factions in Iran, it would have shown that peaceful negotiation provided a way forward. By rejecting a good offer, the US signalled that peaceful negotiation achieves nothing.

I take no pleasure in the irony that, were such a deal offered today, it would be trumpeted as a gigantic success. Regrettably, the idea now seems to be beyond the bounds of possibility; we're unlike to see another such offer for perhaps a generation. When historians come to consider this, they will probably wonder, just as I do: what was Bush thinking?